Posted Friday, May 03, 2002
Domestic Consumer Expenditures on All Books Expected to Reach $36.4 billion by 2006
Study indicates Domestic Consumer Expenditures on All Books are expected to Increase to $36.4 billion by the year 2006: Up from $31.2 billion in 2001 Adult Trade Sales, Mass Market and Book Clubs all to post increases in 2002, Juvenile and Mail Order Sales to fall.
Significant trends and issues which emerged in 2001 are addressed in the newly released annual Book Industry Trends 2002: Covering the Years 1996-2006, prepared for the Book Industry Study Group by Fordham University Graduate School of Business Administration. The annual study is part of a series of studies published by the Book Industry Study Group, Inc., a not-for-profit organization comprised of over 220 organizations from every sector of the book industry. The results of these studies are widely reported in the media and referred to within the book industry.
Trends — The Data — Highlights
According to Book Industry Trends 2002, Domestic Consumer Expenditures on all books are expected to reach $36.4 billion by the year 2006, up from $31.2 billion in 2001. Estimates and projections for 2002, 2003 and 2004 respectively are $31.8, $32.7 and $34.2 billion showing steady growth during the next three years.
In the area of adult trade titles, covering hardcover and trade paperback, sales in 2002 are projected to increase 4.5 percent to $8.8 billion. Hardcover sales growth in 2002 will be low at just 3.3%. The 6.1% growth in adult trade paperback sales indicates that both publishers and consumers favor this format. The popularity of adult paperbacks, with publishers and readers, will continue for the next several years with projections for 2003, 2004 and 2005 sales of $3.9 billion, $4.0 billion and $4.2 billion respectively.
With the absence of a Harry Potter or similar title, juvenile trade sales in 2002 are projected to decline 4.1% to $2.5 billion. Both juvenile hardcover and trade paper will decline, hardcover, 7.6% and trade paper 0.6% this year. The turnaround in juvenile will not occur until 2004. In 2003 the juvenile category will decline again, 3.5% to $2.4 billion.
For mass-market paperbacks, 2002 will be a mediocre year with sales increasing only 2.3% to $2.7 billion. Projections are that sales will increase 3.5%% in 2003. Industry experts point to the increasing popularity of trade paperbacks, as the biggest threat especially as rising mass market prices narrow the cost difference between the two formats. Additionally superstores are stronger in promoting hardcover and trade paperbacks than mass-market paperbacks.
The book club market will rise 2.2% in 2002, the slowest growth of the 1996 to 2002 period. The growth in this market can be directly related to book clubs embracing the Internet and moving away from a heavy reliance on snail-mail for recruiting, marketing and taking orders. New book club strategies can continue to assist sales in this market to achieve a 3.5% growth rate for 2003.
Direct mail publishers are seeing a secular decline in this market segment. In 2002, sales in the mail order segment will decline 18.4% percent to $450 million. Since peaking at $796.8 million in 1989, sales for this segment have declined 43.55%. This segment will continue to decline through 2006. Projected sales for mail order in 2006 are $228 million.
Essays
Book Industry TRENDS 2002 will feature a series of essays with a theme, "Trends and Drivers in the Industry". The essays will focus on: Adult Trade, Juvenile Trade, Professional, El Hi and College, Small Presses, Libraries, Retail and Wholesale, and E-Publishing. Each article is written by an industry expert.
Book Industry TRENDS 2002 is scheduled for publication in mid- July.
About BISG
The Book Industry Study Group (BISG) is a not-for-profit research, policy and standards organization whose members come from every sector of the publishing community. The Study Group is a forum for managing change and enabling interaction among publishers, booksellers, librarians, wholesalers, manufacturers, authors, and suppliers. For more information, visit www.bisg.org.
Significant trends and issues which emerged in 2001 are addressed in the newly released annual Book Industry Trends 2002: Covering the Years 1996-2006, prepared for the Book Industry Study Group by Fordham University Graduate School of Business Administration. The annual study is part of a series of studies published by the Book Industry Study Group, Inc., a not-for-profit organization comprised of over 220 organizations from every sector of the book industry. The results of these studies are widely reported in the media and referred to within the book industry.
Trends — The Data — Highlights
According to Book Industry Trends 2002, Domestic Consumer Expenditures on all books are expected to reach $36.4 billion by the year 2006, up from $31.2 billion in 2001. Estimates and projections for 2002, 2003 and 2004 respectively are $31.8, $32.7 and $34.2 billion showing steady growth during the next three years.
In the area of adult trade titles, covering hardcover and trade paperback, sales in 2002 are projected to increase 4.5 percent to $8.8 billion. Hardcover sales growth in 2002 will be low at just 3.3%. The 6.1% growth in adult trade paperback sales indicates that both publishers and consumers favor this format. The popularity of adult paperbacks, with publishers and readers, will continue for the next several years with projections for 2003, 2004 and 2005 sales of $3.9 billion, $4.0 billion and $4.2 billion respectively.
With the absence of a Harry Potter or similar title, juvenile trade sales in 2002 are projected to decline 4.1% to $2.5 billion. Both juvenile hardcover and trade paper will decline, hardcover, 7.6% and trade paper 0.6% this year. The turnaround in juvenile will not occur until 2004. In 2003 the juvenile category will decline again, 3.5% to $2.4 billion.
For mass-market paperbacks, 2002 will be a mediocre year with sales increasing only 2.3% to $2.7 billion. Projections are that sales will increase 3.5%% in 2003. Industry experts point to the increasing popularity of trade paperbacks, as the biggest threat especially as rising mass market prices narrow the cost difference between the two formats. Additionally superstores are stronger in promoting hardcover and trade paperbacks than mass-market paperbacks.
The book club market will rise 2.2% in 2002, the slowest growth of the 1996 to 2002 period. The growth in this market can be directly related to book clubs embracing the Internet and moving away from a heavy reliance on snail-mail for recruiting, marketing and taking orders. New book club strategies can continue to assist sales in this market to achieve a 3.5% growth rate for 2003.
Direct mail publishers are seeing a secular decline in this market segment. In 2002, sales in the mail order segment will decline 18.4% percent to $450 million. Since peaking at $796.8 million in 1989, sales for this segment have declined 43.55%. This segment will continue to decline through 2006. Projected sales for mail order in 2006 are $228 million.
Essays
Book Industry TRENDS 2002 will feature a series of essays with a theme, "Trends and Drivers in the Industry". The essays will focus on: Adult Trade, Juvenile Trade, Professional, El Hi and College, Small Presses, Libraries, Retail and Wholesale, and E-Publishing. Each article is written by an industry expert.
Book Industry TRENDS 2002 is scheduled for publication in mid- July.
About BISG
The Book Industry Study Group (BISG) is a not-for-profit research, policy and standards organization whose members come from every sector of the publishing community. The Study Group is a forum for managing change and enabling interaction among publishers, booksellers, librarians, wholesalers, manufacturers, authors, and suppliers. For more information, visit www.bisg.org.