Posted Saturday, May 31, 2003
Domestic Consumer Expenditures on Books to Reach $43 billion by 2007
According to Book Industry Trends 2003, Domestic Consumer expenditures on all books are expected to reach $43 billion by the year 2007. Countering recent industry trends, Domestic Consumer expenditures on all books increased to $36.5 billion in 2002, an increase of 14.7% over 2001. Projections indicate steady growth through 2007. Publishers ' net dollar sales indicate an increase of 6.1% over 2001, reaching sales of $26 billion in 2002. Projections for unit sales remain flat.
The Book Industry Study Group 's prestigious, annual study reviews and forecasts book sales in both dollars and units for the period 1997-2007. Prepared for the Book Industry Study Group by Fordham University Graduate School of Business Administration, Trends 2003 is one of a series of studies published by the Book Industry Study Group, Inc., a not-for-profit organization comprised of over 200 organizations from every sector of the book industry. Trends 2003 is slated for publication in June of this year.
Projections in Detail
Trade books, which include adult and juvenile hardcover and paperback show an increase of 8.8% over 2001, reaching close to $7.0 billion in publisher's net dollar revenues for 2002. Forecasts for 2003 indicate an increase of 2.4% in publisher net revenues.
Juvenile trade sales in 2003 are projected to increase 1.5%. Steady growth is anticipated in juvenile hardcover book sales with an increase of 3.0% per year through 2007. Harry Potter plays a large role in this segment and publication plans for a new Harry Potter hardcover in 2003, and the absence of one in 2002 demonstrates the impact this series has on the category.
The book club market projects a 3.7% increase for 2003 -- providing some fuel for what has been a slow growing market in recent years -- Most likely the increase is a result of new book club strategies embracing the Internet.
Direct mail publishers are seeing a continued decline in this market segment. In 2002, sales in the mail order segment declined to $333.5 million. In addition, publisher net dollar revenues are forecasted to drop to $270.8 million in 2003. Since their peak of $796.8 million in 1989, sales for this segment have declined a total 58.1%. Indicators predict that this segment will continue to decline through 2007 plummeting to $71.3 million. The decline is most likely a result of a general trend in direct mail of consumers relying more on on-line purchases.
Professional books, show signs of steady growth for the future. Publisher net dollar revenues for 2003 are projected to reach $5.2 billion and $5.8 billion by 2007. The growth includes electronic distribution of content, providing professionals with easier and more timely access to critical information.
Educational publishing projections for 2003 indicate elhi publisher's net dollar revenues of $4.1 billion, a mere 1% increase from 2002. Economic problems and gaps in state budgets throughout the US have undermined the elhi sector in 2002, leading to a drop of 2.6%.
Essays
Book Industry TRENDS 2003 will also feature big-picture analyses of important trends of the past decade and their implications for the future. Written by industry experts, the essays focus on nine major sectors of the book business: Adult Trade, Juvenile Trade, Professional, Elhi and College, University Presses, Libraries, and Religion.
About BISG:
The Book Industry Study Group (BISG) is a not-for-profit research, policy and standards organization whose members come from every sector of the publishing community. The Study Group is a forum for managing change and enabling interaction among publishers, booksellers, librarians, wholesalers, manufacturers, authors, and suppliers. For more information, visit www.bisg.org.
Click here to view the TRENDS 2003 Preview presentationgiven by Jeff Abraham at BEA on May 31, 2003.
The Book Industry Study Group 's prestigious, annual study reviews and forecasts book sales in both dollars and units for the period 1997-2007. Prepared for the Book Industry Study Group by Fordham University Graduate School of Business Administration, Trends 2003 is one of a series of studies published by the Book Industry Study Group, Inc., a not-for-profit organization comprised of over 200 organizations from every sector of the book industry. Trends 2003 is slated for publication in June of this year.
Projections in Detail
Trade books, which include adult and juvenile hardcover and paperback show an increase of 8.8% over 2001, reaching close to $7.0 billion in publisher's net dollar revenues for 2002. Forecasts for 2003 indicate an increase of 2.4% in publisher net revenues.
Juvenile trade sales in 2003 are projected to increase 1.5%. Steady growth is anticipated in juvenile hardcover book sales with an increase of 3.0% per year through 2007. Harry Potter plays a large role in this segment and publication plans for a new Harry Potter hardcover in 2003, and the absence of one in 2002 demonstrates the impact this series has on the category.
The book club market projects a 3.7% increase for 2003 -- providing some fuel for what has been a slow growing market in recent years -- Most likely the increase is a result of new book club strategies embracing the Internet.
Direct mail publishers are seeing a continued decline in this market segment. In 2002, sales in the mail order segment declined to $333.5 million. In addition, publisher net dollar revenues are forecasted to drop to $270.8 million in 2003. Since their peak of $796.8 million in 1989, sales for this segment have declined a total 58.1%. Indicators predict that this segment will continue to decline through 2007 plummeting to $71.3 million. The decline is most likely a result of a general trend in direct mail of consumers relying more on on-line purchases.
Professional books, show signs of steady growth for the future. Publisher net dollar revenues for 2003 are projected to reach $5.2 billion and $5.8 billion by 2007. The growth includes electronic distribution of content, providing professionals with easier and more timely access to critical information.
Educational publishing projections for 2003 indicate elhi publisher's net dollar revenues of $4.1 billion, a mere 1% increase from 2002. Economic problems and gaps in state budgets throughout the US have undermined the elhi sector in 2002, leading to a drop of 2.6%.
Essays
Book Industry TRENDS 2003 will also feature big-picture analyses of important trends of the past decade and their implications for the future. Written by industry experts, the essays focus on nine major sectors of the book business: Adult Trade, Juvenile Trade, Professional, Elhi and College, University Presses, Libraries, and Religion.
About BISG:
The Book Industry Study Group (BISG) is a not-for-profit research, policy and standards organization whose members come from every sector of the publishing community. The Study Group is a forum for managing change and enabling interaction among publishers, booksellers, librarians, wholesalers, manufacturers, authors, and suppliers. For more information, visit www.bisg.org.
Click here to view the TRENDS 2003 Preview presentationgiven by Jeff Abraham at BEA on May 31, 2003.