Forecasting for the Rest of Us
A Supply Chain Lunch & Learn
In 2022 and 2023, Gary Jones of River Rock Advisers helped BISG's Supply Chain Committee reconsider what drives effective forecasting in the book business. At the start of 2023, he presented his perspective in three consecutive Lunch & Learn sessions. When supply was threatened by a potential UPS strike that wound up getting resolved near its deadline, Gary returned in August 2023 to walk though how to think about that specific use case.
Last month, supply disruptions were again front of mind, as our Lunch & Learn participants from the Woodland Group dissected the impact of reduced capacity navigating the Suez and Panama Canals. The impact on forecasts was a common theme that led us to invite Gary back to share his perspective on how to cope in an uncertain environment.
In this Lunch & Learn, Gary will consider "Forecasting for the Rest of Us", a response to feedback he has received from publishers and their partners that the proposed model (demand, inventory, and supply) requires data that smaller companies are unable to collect or maintain. He'll propose some practical, potentially more manageable approaches that offer the potential to improve forecasting without creating elaborate models. Gary will spend the first 20 minutes of the session providing his perspective on these important issues. After that, they’ll open the conversation up to comments and questions.
Have a question you'd like Gary to address? Feel free to send it in advance to info@bisg.org. The Lunch & Learn will be highly interactive, so you'll have a chance to contribute at the session even if you don't send a question in advance. To allow participants to speak—and not just type questions—these sessions are conducted in a Zoom meeting (rather than webinar) format. Please take a moment to ensure that your microphone is muted until you'd like to contribute. While we encourage you to attend the live session, the conversation will be recorded and shared with registrants after the session takes place.
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