Cargo Market Shifts: Tariff and EUDR Updates for Book Publishers

Cargo Market Shifts: What Book Publishers Need to Know

Air

Global air freight is in flux as U.S. tariff changes and shifting trade priorities reshape Chinese export flows. While the China–U.S. corridor remains active, capacity constraints and pricing volatility are pushing more traffic toward Europe and the UK.

Key Trends

• China–Europe & UK: Rates surged in October, with Shanghai-origin prices up over 16% month-on-month. E-commerce and time-critical shipments dominate, competing for limited capacity. Relief is expected in early 2026 as passenger belly space improves.
• China–U.S.: Spot rates climbed ahead of holiday restocking and tariff fears, but no strong peak season uplift is forecast. High-value goods such as AI hardware and electronics continue to drive demand, keeping capacity tight into 2026.

Ocean

Ocean freight markets remain volatile. Asia–Europe lanes are comparatively stronger, with spot rates rising 5–6% in late November despite added vessel capacity, signaling healthy demand. By contrast, transpacific trades are soft. Rates to the U.S. West Coast have fallen over 30% since early November, and carriers are relying on blank sailings to stabilize pricing. Overcapacity and uneven demand mean publishers shipping bulk print runs or promotional materials by sea should expect choppy rates and potential delays, especially as carriers adjust schedules ahead of Lunar New Year.

Tariffs

A relatively quiet few weeks for tariffs in the context of a chaotic 2025. US publishers are now well aware that despite many of their products being exempt from most tariffs, the impact on the wider book supply chain impacts us all, from cost increases to other raw materials, through to capacity constraints as movers of other products look to capitalize on advantageous conditions. There is little to report following the Supreme Court’s hearing of oral arguments in the IEEPA tariff case in early November, with no clear timeline of when to expect a decision, though sources are claiming this should be resolved by mid-2026. The ramifications of the decision may take much longer to play out.

EUDR Update

On November 26th the European Parliament voted to delay the implementation of its Deforestation Regulations and remove all printed products, including books, journals, newspapers, and magazines, from the scope. The now moves to trilogue with the Council and Commission in December. The UK Publishers Association called the vote a “welcome moment,” noting that excluding books recognizes the complexity of publishing supply chains compared to single-origin commodities. If ratified, this change averts what could have been a significant compliance burden and risk of blocked imports for publishers.